Darkened Poker

Did some reading this weekend about one of my favorite poker players.  Every night I would just try to read an hour of this book before crashing out and every night I would end up reading until 3am.  Doyle Brunson’s life was just that amazing.  Your not going to learn anything about playing better poker but you will be very entertained.

First quarter of the book is about growing up in Texas and his run at being a pro basket ball player which ends sadly and he needs to find a new career.

Second part of the book is about being a rounder in Texas and trying to make a living playing poker with the salt of the earth.  I have played in a few places were I did not like my chances of making it to the door without a fight and even saw a dealer get knifed once.  This in nothing compared to what Doyle has lived through.  He has been robbed and beat up, seen people get knifed and gunned down at the table.  His stories about playing at places guarded by a .50 cal machine gun to keep away raiders just blows my mind.  Life was really different back then.

Third part of the book is about his life after moving to Vegas and playing with the big crime bosses.  These times are even crazier, less worried about being rob but more worried about getting cheated at the table or not pissing off a mob boss which would get you killed.  This by far my favorite part of the book.  It really blew my mind how much gamble this guy has and how honest he was about his mistakes.  He could make millions playing poker and then blow them the next day in bad investments.  Also amazed at how much money Doyle won but never got paid, I get pissed when someone defaults on 100$, people have not paid him single bets over 800k.

Last part of the book is a look at the growth of poker and how things changes really fast.  It was interesting to get the perspective of were things are going from someone that has lived through the past and all the changes that we take for granted.  I also like his story of a 2 year 100 pound weight loss bet Chip Reese and a bunch of other pro’s.  With over 1 million of prop bet motivation he finally managed to take the weight off.  I think everyone should read this book, it would as it would give them a lot more respect for the game.  Highly recommend clicking image below and getting yourself a copy of it.

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Darkened Poker

Recently watched Season 5 Episode 4 of GSN’s High Stakes Poker where Tom Durr bluffs big and gets Barry Greenstien and Peter Eastgate to lay down the better hands.  Doyle then makes a side bet with Tom Durr that Barry G had laid down the best hand.  The side bet finally gets up to 19k and Peter E finally admits he had laid down trip 2′s and Barry G admits that is better than his hand.

Why did Doyle bet Tom Durr 19k, was it really because the though or cared that Barry G really did have the best hand?  I doubt it, Doyle pays up and then uses that information to take a multiple pots off Peter Eastgate later in the episode.  In fact everyone starts re-raising him and he loses a lot of pots that he should not have.  That is why you never discuss a hand at the table, what did he expect a table full of pro’s to do with that information?

Barry Greenstien has been trash talking the internet kids for awhile about how their lack of live experience would hurt them at the big live games.  So now after the very open and fully discussed bluffed ran on him by Tom Durr he is desperate to not be pushed around by any more internet punks.  Soon he gets the chance to re-raise Peter Eastgate of a positional raise with J 9,  but Tom Durr is behind him with AA and re-raises again to 30k and Barry G calls this re-raise instantly.

Flop comes down:

J 7 4

And Barry G manages to check raise himself all in for 500k with top pair and med kicker just like a newb.  Holy shit “the bear” what was that all about.   He then gets amazing lucky and spikes a 9 on the turn to win the pot.  This is why you do not want to get involved in trash talk, suddenly there are emotions involved and it becomes much harder to get any reads. I am sure he was thinking that the kid was trying to teach him a lesson instead of reading the hand normally which is the 3rd re-raise is AA’s, KK’s, QQ’s.  There was just no point to it at all, the check raise all in was pointless, only getting called if beat, why not let the aggressive Tom Durr continue to bluff into him if he was indeed ahead.

Not sure what is going on this season, even Daniel Negreanu is playing like a bit of a donkey this year and managed to check raise himself all in against David Benyamine’s Quad 4′s.  Seems like the bigger 500k buy in and even more super aggressive players is causing everyone to ship it in very light this time around.

Click here for Season 5 Episode 4

I have mucked the best hand in a live game, in fact at the right table I will do it 2 – 3 time in one night.  Try it some time, be sitting there with the nut flush and get asked to turn over your cards and instead just throw them into the muck and let someone else take the pot.  There is something pure evil about it as you know that you can throw away pots and you will still take their money by the end of the night.  When I first started playing online I was upset that I could not tell the computer to fold my hand no matter what.  I understand they did not want to put it in because it could allow a vast amount of cheating.  But it also takes away a great tool that every player should have access to.

Say your at a good table, you have relative position on 2 -3 extreme LAG’s, you have seen them make some crazy all in bluffs to take down pots and other things LAG’s do.  Now if you have a table like this you know you can trap them for a very big hand during the night if you get the right situation.  Sooner or later they will over play their hands, and you can come along and close the trap on one of more of them for a sweet pot.  It will usually happen once every couple of hours if your patient enough.

So here is where I will muck my hand, say the LAG’s and I take a flop in a limped pot and I get the nut flush draw on the flop.  Flop also contains a str8 draw as well, we all check the flop.  Turn comes and one of the LAG’s puts out the min bet and we call call.  River comes and it completes the str8 but also gives me the flush.  I check it to them hoping one of them made a str8 and one made a lower flush and I get to re-raise them both.

Here is the thing some time they both check behind me and the dealer asks to see our hands.  I want to muck my hand, I do not want to win that pot. If I turn over my hand I will win a very small ( 6 – rake  BB ) pot but they will see that I was trying to trap them and be very careful if they are in a pot with me again.  Or I could dump my hand and continue to try and trap them for a really big hand later in the night. Even the dumbest of fish will not let you check raise them and pay you off twice in one night.  So make that first one count.

In my mind winning that small pot is -EV for the night.

I was in a 3-5 no limit game at Casino Real in Manteca with a unlimited buy in.  Several people were playing about 2000 behind for effective stack sizes of 400 bb, real deep stack poker.   This hand came up, Seat 3 bets 30, Seat 5 raises to 100, comes back to Seat 3 and he makes it 250 which is then called.  Flop comes 7 high and seat 3 checks, seat 5 bets 500, seat 3 re-raises all in for 1000 more and is instantly called.  Seat 3 had KK and goes broke to Seat 5′s AA.  At which point I hear the common knowledge,  “nothing you can do about going broke with AA vs KK”.  Holy shit sir, you just dropped 1750 drawing almost dead and you believe it was unavoidable.  God I love this game, same fish as my normal game except they have a lot more money.  Where does this craziness come from?

Once upon a time I was reading a book “Super system” by Doyle Brunson and in it he said that if he had KK and got into a raising match with someone pre-flop that he was going broke if they happened to have AA, there was nothing he could do about it.  More often than not they would have QQ, JJ, AK rather than AA, so he thought it was best not to worry about the rare cases were it was AA vs KK.  Well as I was starting out in hold’em poker at the time I took this advice to heart and did my best to get all my money in with KK pre-flop every chance I could.

Guess what, that got very expensive very fast, which caused me to take another look at the advice given by this two time world champion.  I am not sure if Doyle Brunson was always playing in short stacked games with other crazy aggressive players that were over valuing their hands all the time.  The book did not really talk about starting stack sizes and the other player types in which he was encountering at the time, that’s to bad because I think a lot of people are blindly applying it and not thinking it through.

In short stack games like a 1-2 game with a max 200 buy in you do not have a lot of play, if the first bet is 12, the second raise will be 36 and the third raise 108 which would be over 1/2 of someones stack.  If you have over 1/2 have your stack in pre-flop with a hand that good, you might as well have the rest in there as your unlikely to fold.   Fine, the advice seems to work for low limit short stack games where there is not enough range in your chip stack to get the information you need before being all in.  Also the level of play at this limit is so bad the advice makes it even more sense, people often over value their hands and might put in a third raise with anything from AA to 99 and any AK – AT suited.

In big stack games like the 3-5 with average 1500 buy in you have a lot of play and can get a lot of information before you whole stack is at risk.  Starting again first raise was 30, second would be 90, third would still only be 270, that leaves 1500 to play for still.  One is not even close to being pot committed at this point and you have a lot of knowledge about what you opponent has if they call the third raise or re-raise you all in.  In a bigger game their range is very likely to be a lot smaller, that third raise says AA, KK and maybe AK suited or QQ if you have a very loose player.  Since you have two kings, the chances of AK suited are reduced in 1/2.  Chance of another KK is very rare so that leaves even in the loose player case it is 50 – 50 if your up against AA or QQ, against normal players you are way more than likely to be behind.

Now the question is do you want to play another 1500 on a 50-50 chance?  It is a cash game, you have time to wait and find better chances of getting your money in good.  Also you have to factor in the player, I have seen people that would never two bet anything without KK or AA, and a third bet could only be AA.  In these cases you would have to toss the KK if they two bet it or smooth called your two bet.

Point is never accept conventional wisdom or hard and fast rules, it is hard to say when or why it became conventional and it if any longer applies.  Need more proof, watch Jamie Gold loose 250k to Sammy Farha in 5th season of High Stakes poker.  He knows he is beat and still throws away his money, it is just in his brain that he can not fold.  If you do take the next step just do not let people know that you will fold KK pre-flop or they will be three betting you all the time.

PR: wait… I: wait… L: wait… LD: wait… I: wait… wait… C: wait… SD: wait…

A bunch of books like Super System by Doyle Brunson came out in the past that recommended playing suited connectors.  Lots of people took this to heart and started playing them way to aggressive in my mind.  This seems to be a big leak in peoples games so lets look at the real odds needed to play these cards.

Chance of hitting a straight with connectors and 5 cards to come = 6.66 to 1 = 13%
Chance of hitting a flush with suited and 5 cards to come = 14.63 to 1 = 6.3 %
Total   = 4.44 to 1 = 18.3%

4.44 – 1  is not too bad and is why people tend to over play suited connectors in general.  But the big problem with them is unlike pocket pairs were you flop a set and stack someone or are done with the hand.  Suited connectors you very rarely flop a straight or flush and if you’re lucky you flop a draw that is not the favorite to win but causes you to just invest more money in the pot.  But I see people call large raises either heads up or against 2 people with not much money behind all the time.  Lets do the math on the the real odds you need.

Take the best case of 7 8 suited and the flops you can go to war with:

4*4*4 = 4 straight’s * 64 combination’s of flopped straight / ( 50 * 49 * 48 / 3 ! ) = 1.3 %
11*10*9 / 3! = 165 combination’s of flopped flush / ( 50 * 49 * 48 / 3 ! ) = .84 %
1 * 1 * 48 + ( 1 * 4 * 9 ) = 6 straight’s * 84 combination’s of either gut shot or open ended straight & flush draw / ( 50 * 49 * 48 / 3 ! ) = 2.5 %
Hitting trips 1.35%
Hitting two pair 2.2%

Total chance of having anything on the flop:  1 to 11.2 or 8.2%, that is about 1/2 the chance of hitting a set with a pocket pair.

The interesting phenomenon though is people do tend to not believe that you flopped a flush or straight and are more likely to let you stack them.  But if you flop two to a flush and hit it on the turn they would instantly believe you hit it and get away from the hand.  But you will only flop it about 2.14% of the time so your stacking odds are not good.

Again let see if this is really the whole story, assume again they only raise with group 1 hands, they bet 10 out of 100 buy in.  Also lets assume we can get all in on the flop with a re-raise and that they will bet to much to continue with just a straight or flush draw and we would have to fold.

21 % AA vs 78s

1.3 straight
.84 flush – 12% redraw to higher flush
1.7 hitting open Straight & flush draw
.85 hitting gut shot Straight & flush draw
1.35 hitting trips – 8% redraw to higher full house
2.2 hitting 2 pair – 26% redraw to higher two pair
91.7 we miss and fold

Total EV = 1.2 + 0.7392 + 0.34 + -0.034 + 1.242 + 1.628 + -9.17 = -4.0548
EV becomes positive if they have 180 behind

21 % KK vs 78s

1.3 straight
.84 flush – 12% draw to higher flush – 15% of ace hitting and only getting 1 continuation bet
1.7 hitting open Straight & flush draw
.85 hitting gut shot Straight & flush draw
1.35 hitting trips – 8% redraw to higher full house
2.2 hitting 2 pair – 26% redraw to higher two pair
91.7 we miss and fold

Total EV = 1.2 + 0.6321 + 0.34 + -0.034 + 1.242 + 1.628 + -9.17 = -4.1619
EV becomes positive if they have 184 behind
21 % QQ vs 78s

1.3 straight
.84 flush – 12% draw to higher flush – 30% of ace/king hitting and only getting 1 continuation bet
1.7 hitting open Straight & flush draw
.85 hitting gut shot Straight & flush draw
1.35 hitting trips
2.2 hitting 2 pair – 26% redraw to higher two pair
91.7 we miss and fold

Total EV = 1.2 + 0.525 + 0.34 + -0.034 + 1.242 + 1.628 + -9.17 = -4.269
EV becomes positive if they have 188 behind

21% JJ vs 78s

1.3 straight
.84 flush – 12% draw to higher flush – 45% of overs hitting and only getting 1 continuation bet
1.7 hitting open Straight & flush draw
.85 hitting gut shot Straight & flush draw
1.35 hitting trips
2.2 hitting 2 pair – 26% redraw to higher two pair
91.7 we miss and fold

Total EV = 1.2 + 0.4179 + 0.34 + -0.034 + 1.242 + 1.628 + -9.17 = -4.3761
EV becomes positive if they have 193 behind

15% AKs vs 78s

1.3 straight, he can not have anything yet so have to slow play and pick off bluffs, 1/3 chance he hits something on turn or river
.84 flush – 25% he will have bigger flush, only 33% he hit and you can get him all in
1.7 hitting open Straight & flush draw
.85 hitting gut shot Straight & flush draw
1.35 hitting trips
2.2 hitting 2 pair – 26% redraw to higher two pair
91.7 we miss and fold

Total EV = 0.4752 + 0.04578 + 0.02244 + 0.04488 + 0.5346 + 0.68244 + -9.17 = -7.36466

EV becomes positive if they have 630 behind

TOTAL EV = -4.645677
TOTAL EV TURNS POSITVIE = 207 or 1 – 19.7 odds

This hand needs brutal implied odds to be profitable and really needs to be played very multiway to make money over the long term.  You will rarely ever have 20 – 1 odds at lower limit games like the 1-1-2 at Lucky Chances.

Click here for article on small pocket pairs