Big poker mistake in Omaha to pay this off
Posted by: Travis Johnston / Category: Cash Game, Online, StrategySomehow my brain blinked out and I did not really think about the odds that he could hold the hand I could beat.
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 8 players
Hero (MP2): $13.20
CO: $29.50
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP2 with J
J
4
A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, BTN calls $0.25, 1 fold, BB checks
Flop: ($1.60) 9 8 6 (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.25, CO calls $1.25, BTN folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds
Turn: ($4.10) 8
(2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks
River: ($4.10) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.90, Hero calls $3.90
Final Pot: $11.90
Hero mucks J J 4 A
CO shows 2 T 9 9 (a full house, Nines full of Eights)
CO wins $11.35
- Flop I bet almost pot size to protect my hand which was fine.
- Turn a very bad card comes as I no longer have the nuts, I check with plan of folding to pot size bet. When he checks behind I put him either on a K high flush or checking his full house because he is not worried about the redraw.
- River 7 does complete a str8 but no one should be drawing at that by this point. I check again hoping to win a show down but he bet the pot.
Since I put him on either the King high flush or the full house, but now for some reason instead of folding I thought it was 50-50 I was ahead and since I was getting 2-1 odds I called.
Wow, how tired was I to make that mistake. I need him to be holding the King high flush 33 percent of the time to make that call break even. What are the real chances he is holding that hand on the river? First he would have to call the flop with second nuts when 5 people saw the flop and someone was betting into all 5 people. Then he would have to bet the pot on the river into a paired board with the second nut flush into a guy that can clearly showed strength on the flop when the flush was the best hand.
Most likely I am going to see a king high flush here < 10% of the time as the guy would have to be a real fish to bet into it with anything except a full house. In Holdem that would be an easy call, but in Omaha it was clearly wrong even heads up. Still learning…
♣♥♦
