Another interesting chart to fall out of the last 9 posts of stats is how likely is it that someone has a made hand on a scary board given the number of people in the hand. Note over 100% means that more than one person at the table has the hand in question. ie 300% means that 3 people at the table have a flush when 4 cards to a flush are on the board.
This chart can be used for two different purposes:
- If the board gets scary you can use this to determine if you want to bluff at it, given the # of people in the hand you can determine how likely it is someone really hands the hand that you are trying to represent and therefor how likely you will get called.
- If you have a good hand but not the nuts and the board gets scary, you can determine how likely it is your hand just got beat given how many people are in the hand with you.
% chance Hand is out Per # Players
Explanation of the legend:
- Set when Pair: % chance someone has a set when there is a pair on the board.
- Str8 when 3: % chance someone has a straight when there is 3 connectors cards on the board, eg 2 3 4 9 K.
- Str8 when 4: % chance someone has a straight when there is 4 connector cards on the board, eg 2 3 4 5 K.
- Flush when 3: % chance someone has a flush when there is 3 suited cards on the board, 2♣ 3♣ 4♣ 9♥ K♥.
- Flush when 4: % chance someone has a flush when there is 4 suited cards on the board, 2♣ 3♣ 4♣ 9♣ K♥.
- Full when Pair: % chance someone has a full house when there is a pair on the board.
- Full when Set: % chance someone has a full house when there is a set on the board.
- Full when 2 pair: % chance someone has a full house when there is 2 pair on the board.
- Quads when pair: % chance someone has Quads when there is a pair on the board.
- Quads when Set: % chance someone has Quads when there is a set on the board.
As far a using this chart for determining bluffing frequencies consider this the min bar. These stats just say how likely it is someone has a hand given the number of people still playing. It says nothing about the how high their flush is or if they have the bottom or top end of the straight. You may get more folds that this chart would indicate based on how tight the players in the game are and how good your table image is.
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Tags: Poker, Texas Holdem