Some important stats from my poker simulator; 500,000 rounds of Texas Holdem ran 4 handed all the way to the river. This chart gives you a good idea of the frequency of each rank of hand coming up and its % chance to be winning at show down.
Texas Holdem hand types and their win rate at showdown
Hand type
% of hands
% of rounds won
High
17.4246
0.62746
Pair
43.8315
24.1368
Two Pair
23.5011
33.7857
Set
4.82032
11.0415
Straight
4.61496
13.0688
Flush
3.0292
8.5155
Full House
2.58927
8.1439
Quads
0.165575
0.58964
Straight Flush
0.020625
0.07962
Royal Flush
0.00282
0.01114
The above stats are very interesting and should be memorized but they can be a little
misleading. For example only 8.5% of the hands are won by a flush, but that does not means if there is 3 flush cards on the board that only 8.5% of the time someone will have one. A poker player really also wants to know that given that the condition for a flush is meet what is the chance that someone at the table has that hand.
Texas Holdem, % chance that someone has the hand when board supports it, 4 handed
Hand given the Condition
% Hand
Set when pair on board
26.0416
Straight when 3 continuous on board
19.2066
Straight when 4 continuous on board
22.9567
Flush when 3 suited on board
32.6617
Flush when 4 suited on board
150.16
Full House when pair on board
11.2366
Full House when set on board
133.603
Full House when 2 pair on board
66.3106
Quads when pair on board
0.417455
Quads when set on board
16.9198
Given the above example you can see that in a 4 handed Texas Holdem game if there is 3 suited cards on the board then it is not 8.5% chance that someone has a flush but a much higher 32%.
Hope these stats help you guys survive at the poker tables.
Some important stats from my poker simulator; 500,000 rounds of Texas Holdem ran 3 handed all the way to the river. This chart gives you a good idea of the frequency of each rank of hand coming up and its % chance to be winning at show down.
Texas Holdem hand types and their win rate at showdown
Hand type
% of hands
% of rounds won
High
17.4061
1.96798
Pair
43.8425
29.9811
Two Pair
23.5049
33.9322
Set
4.82175
9.24258
Straight
4.613
10.7805
Flush
3.02543
7.04364
Full House
2.59493
6.52778
Quads
0.16812
0.45582
Straight Flush
0.0207533
0.0612
Royal Flush
0.00244667
0.00724
The above stats are very interesting and should be memorized but they can be a little
misleading. For example only 87% of the hands are won by a flush, but that does not means if there is 3 flush cards on the board that only 7% of the time someone will have one. A poker player really also wants to know that given that the condition for a flush is meet what is the chance that someone at the table has that hand.
Texas Holdem, % chance that someone has the hand when board supports it, 3 handed
Hand given the Condition
% Hand
Set when pair on board
19.5401
Straight when 3 continuous on board
14.3821
Straight when 4 continuous on board
17.2001
Flush when 3 suited on board
24.4504
Flush when 4 suited on board
112.093
Full House when pair on board
8.41623
Full House when set on board
100.658
Full House when 2 pair on board
49.8581
Quads when pair on board
0.328722
Quads when set on board
12.7385
Given the above example you can see that in a 3 handed Texas Holdem game if there is 3 suited cards on the board then it is not 7% chance that someone has a flush but a much higher 24%.
Hope these stats help you guys crush the short handed poker tables.
Some important stats from my poker simulator; 500,000 rounds of Texas Holdem ran heads up all the way to the river. This chart gives you a good idea of the frequency of each rank of hand coming up and its % chance to be winning at show down.
Texas Holdem hand types and their win rate at showdown
Hand type
% of hands
% of rounds won
High
17.4089
5.92426
Pair
43.801
37.0883
Two Pair
23.5279
31.4763
Set
4.82196
7.17954
Straight
4.613
8.0144
Flush
3.03321
5.25662
Full House
2.59884
4.703
Quads
0.16801
0.31176
Straight Flush
0.02083
0.04106
Royal Flush
0.00241
0.00472
The above stats are very interesting and should be memorized but they can be a little
misleading. For example only 87% of the hands are won by a flush, but that does not means if there is 3 flush cards on the board that only 7% of the time someone will have one. A poker player really also wants to know that given that the condition for a flush is meet what is the chance that someone at the table has that hand.
Texas Holdem, % chance that someone has the hand when board supports it, heads up
Hand given the Condition
% Hand
Set when pair on board
12.9798
Straight when 3 continuous on board
9.60703
Straight when 4 continuous on board
11.4906
Flush when 3 suited on board
16.3323
Flush when 4 suited on board
75.0733
Full House when pair on board
5.62984
Full House when set on board
66.8129
Full House when 2 pair on board
33.1935
Quads when pair on board
0.21424
Quads when set on board
8.52103
Given the above example you can see that in a heads up Texas Holdem game if there is 3 suited cards on the board then it is not 5% chance that someone has a flush but a much higher 16%.
Hope these stats help you guys crush the heads up tables.
Even though this is horrible poker that even an average player will find is just barely worth watching it will probably be good for the game overall. The quick run down of this show is Daniel Negreanu is sitting next to some poker newb and first tries to help him beat a celebrity heads up and win some money. If that works he/she can then try and take on another poker pro for even more money but this time Daniel is in a sound box and can not help him quite as much. If he/she beats the pro then they can face off against Daniel himself with no outside help and try to win 100k.
The Good:
It does a good job of making poker look easy which will bring more people into poker and that is very good for game. Not sure if it is just editing or the pro’s help but they make it look like the newb just cut through the celebrity, Vanessa Rousso and Daniel Negreanu.
They also make it look like you can learn poker in 1/2 an hour of instruction, this is good for all those poker instructors out there. I am sure more than a few newbs will be downloading a few instructional video’s and thinking they can now take on the pro’s.
The Bad:
This is not a show your going to learn much from, it is so edited that most of the time nothing makes any sense at all. All you see is the pro’s looking like complete idiots making bad calls and horrible bluffs.
They also show Daniel making some great reads, which makes for great TV but also highlights just how bad Daniels play must have been when he lost the match later on. I can only hope the producer told Daniel to let the preacher win.
The Ugly:
The preacher was thanking god after every winning hand and pulling out Rosemarie every time he was all in. There is nothing wrong with that except it reminded me of Jerry Yang winning the main event a few years ago. That was ugly since he turned out to be such a poor ambassador and did nothing to promote the sport while he was the main event champion. But on the other hand I do like people pushing all in with nothing but a draw and a shout out to god.
