Darkened Poker

We had a really exciting dealers choice game going this Friday, couple of players that were make sure every pot was worth fighting over, couple of players on tilt and I was dealing fast enough that we would get a few interesting hand worth writing about before 5 am.

The game is Omaha High \ Low 8 or better with 1/1 blinds, I am up to about 600$ and UTG player has me covered, everyone else has roughly 400$ so the game is playing fairly deep stacked.

In late position I pick up A 2 K Q , a really good High/Low hand.

I limp for a one dollar as there is not much point in raising yet since so far since there has not been any problem getting stacks in on later streets if one hits.  The button who is on tilt and stuck a lot of money bets the pot and 4 people call for 10$

Pot is 43$ and the flop comes down:  3 4 Q

• What a flop, I have 8 outs with the nut flush draw, 12 outs to the low draw, plus 3 outs for the 5 to complete the wheel.

UTG player bets 40$, I would be happy to raise and get it all in right now but with 4 people in the pot I just call to see if we can build a really big pot.  2 people behind me also call and 4 of us see the turn, mission accomplished this is looking good.

Pot is 203$ to the turn comes down: 10

• I still have nothing but my nothing just got better as I now have 3 outs with the J for broadway.

UTG player bets 100$, I call and get over called before the button re-pots for 150$ more at which point the UTG re-pots for 600$ total which puts me all in for 350$ more.  There is one person behind me not all in and has about 100$ left.

So there is 1050$ in the pot, plus I have to imagine the guy behind me will call off his last 100$ at this point as there is so much money in the pot and he is an action junky.

So I tank for about 1 min to work through the math before I decide to put the rest of my chips in the pot.

The river is the sweet sweet: J , one of the only 6 cards that lets me scoop the entire 1600$ pot.

I table my hand to collect the pot and someone not even in the hand start complaining that there is no way I should have had to think that long before calling given that I had 25 outs and was getting 3 to 1 on my money.  And this is why I love Omaha High/Low, people always vastly over estimate what their outs are which leads to higher EV’s and thus always putting their money into the pot when they should not be doing so.

So this guy thinks I am calling 400$ to win 1200$ with 25 outs:

Very Poorly calculated EV = 1  or ( 50% * 1200 – 50% * 400 ) / 400.

Thus I would agree, if the real EV was even close to 1 I should be shoving all my money in the pot as quick as I could, but our EV is not even close to this number so lets first figure out what our real outs:

• 5-9, J K of hearts for flush
• J & 5  for gut-shot straight draw
• 5, 6, 7, 8 for low

9 flush outs possible, we subtract 2 of them for pairing the 3 and the T which could make someone a full house and given the betting so far with 4 people in the hand it is almost 100% likely someone has a set. So we have ( 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, J, K,) left but only 9, J, K give me scooping the pot outs and 5, 6, 7, 8 would bring the low which would allow someone else to at least split the low with me.  Given there is 4 people in the hand it is again almost 100% likely that someone else has A2 as well.

Slightly better calculated EV = .88 or (  ( 6% * 1200 + 8% * 600 )  + 36% * 1200 – 50% * 400 ) / 400.

6 gut-shot outs possible, since the J is a back door gut-shot I can assume no one else is going for it and they are clean scoop outs.  The 5 looks like a would give me possible scoop outs since it would give me the low and a straight but in this case I am 100% likely splitting the pot if it comes.

Better calculated EV = .79  or (  ( 6% * 1200 + 8% * 600 )  + ( 6% * 1200 + 6% * 600 ) + 24% * 1200 – 50% * 400 ) / 400.

12 low outs possible, these outs are not scope outs but only for 1/2 the pot

Even better calculated EV = .43 or (  ( 6% * 1200 + 8% * 600 )  + ( 6% * 1200 + 6% * 600 ) + 24% * 600 – 50% * 400 ) / 400.

But we have to be realistic, there is 4 people in a high low pot and we are getting all the money in, I can be 100% sure I am not getting 1/2 the pot if the low comes but at least getting quartered.  Heads up I could put the other person on a weaker backup low draw but 4 ways there is no way someone else does not have an A2 in their hand as well.

Close to Real EV = .25 or (  ( 6% * 1200 + 8% * 600 )  + ( 6% * 1200 + 6% * 600 ) + 24% * 300 – 50% * 400 ) / 400.

Well that is a lot lower than the commentator’s original calculation and in fact we can keep on driving this number down.  For example given that we have 4 people putting it all in it is also quite likely someone else has a King or Queen high flush draw and has 1 or 2 of my important scoop outs which drastically changes the EV.

But for this lets stop at close to real, although an EV = .25 is still good for the super high variance game of Omaha H/L it not a given that I would want to instantly shove all my money in.  I might want to take a little time to decide if the guy that has me covered is likely to also have the A2 or is it hopefully one of the smaller stacks so I have some additional equity in the side pot.

But lets not tell my commentator that, I will just smile and say I did not realize I had that many outs.  While he gets even more frustrated and starts going on tilt I will start stacking my new mountain of chips

♣♥♦

Darkened Poker